04 Pure-Age Projections

So, if you're like me you're probably wondering what the new "pure age" teams might look like in the 2016-17 Soccer Year.  It seemed like an impossible task (and probably is) to know with any certainty how the newly-formed pure-age teams might stack up against each other after the deck is re-shuffled.

However, it occurred to me today that there might be a way to get a general picture of the future, with the help of youthsoccerrankings.com (the most accurate rankings site by far).  Because youthsoccerrankings are done on the basis of a relative score that is applicable across ages, we can weight, and then combine, the strength of 05 and 04 teams within a club to get a projected ranking for a combined team.

There are some major assumption here:  (a) 7/12 (.583) of the combined team will be 04's and 5/12 (.417) will be 05's; (b) the quality of a team's current talent is evenly distributed throughout the year; (c) clubs will generally combine their top 05 team with their top 04 team, etc.; and (d) the players that will replace the players lost to 03 teams will come from the club's corresponding 05 team, not a lower-tier 04 team.  The validity of the final assumption may vary widely from club-to-club, depending if they have more than one 04 team, and it's quality vs. the top 05 team.

With those major caveats, here's an example:  
OFC 04 ranking score (31.91) x .538 =  18.60
OFC 05 ranking score (32.40) x .417 =  13.51
Total hypothetical team score =  32.11

And here are the projected 2016-17 rankings, for all teams with a 24.00 or greater rankings score:

1.  OFC #1        32.11
2.  TSC #1        31.01
3.  Blitz #1        28.48
4.  WSA #1        28.35
5.  TSC #2         28.29
6.  SLSC #1        28.22
7.  NYSA #1       28.03
8.  OFC #2         27.79
9.  Blitz #2         26.77
10. OFC#3         26.59
11. Bixby #1      26.14
12. OFC #4        26.04
13. NEOFC         25.81
14. Stillwater     25.72
15. TSC #3        25.58
16. Ponca City    25.43
17. Bartlesville   25.42
18. NYSA #2      24.71
19. Arsenal        24.58
20. WSA #2       24.34
21. Bixby #2      24.31
22. Blitz #3        24.31
23. TSC #4        24.01

Note: the youthsoccerrankings.com scores are intended to be predictive; i.e. they indicate what the site's computer model says should be the most likely outcome of a game between two teams.  For example, OFC#1 would be expected to beat NYSA#1 by 4 goals.  If the actual margin is less than that, then NYSA rises, and OFC falls, in the next rankings update (and visa versa).

Absolutely great topic but I think from a scientific standpoint is lacking by using the rankings. What this age group and any age group looks like going forward is a complete unknown. Having a true 04 daughter this next year is tough because everything is projected based upon who, how many and what position players are returning. I know I have given it tons of thought and the only thing I truly know is I don’t know anything.

I’ll use the OFC analogy for example since you discuss it.
From what I know OFC out of 17 registered players on their 04 team only 6ish are 04s. Of their 05s, 8 of 16 are 04s. The next question is how are the top players distributed? For the OFC 04 team number 7 and 17 are both 03s. From a top player standpoint, what “top” players are true 04s? On the OFC 05 team the analogy is the same. You have 8 04s but how many of those are top players? Assume their top players are split at 50%? That leaves 4 – 5 top end players who are true 04s playing 05 to combine with (making assumption here so don’t get offended) 3 top players are who true 04s playing 04 now. That’s a total of 7 – 8 top players who have played top competition.

Now look at TSC. By sheer numbers they will have at least 5 true 04s between Griffin Parker and their 05 team. So you know TSC should be set.

Norman’s 04 team is mainly 03s (10 out of 15 are 03s). How many of their 05s are 04s and how is that split up between their top talent?

I’m obviously intimately familiar with SLSC. Of kids that start we have 7 04s (field players) and of our 05 team we have 4-5 good 05s that have started to play with us in tournaments.

As a 04 parent there is a ton of guesswork involved next year. Who is the coach? If your getting a new coach, where do they practice? What new players are coming in? Will you get players from different clubs now that the team is split? As a 05 parent, how will my kid adapt to different roles. My kid is no longer the “bigger” and “faster” kid so how do they adapt? Do I switch teams now that I know the “new” team won’t be as talented as the one I was on? Some kids who have been among the fastest are now average speed? How do the 04s deal with possibly changing positions? Will the 05 who has been a forward now have to learn to play defense because the speed is not there? Tons of unknown that I think applies up and until about the 2001 age group where the age effect is lessened.

Looking at it for my kid, this next year is truly a crapshoot. We know TSC will be good given their numbers and amount of 04s on their two top 04 teams and their top 05 team. OFC always has the numbers but their 04s this year are weighted very heavily on the 03 side. What 04 talent is left over? How do their 05s who are pure 04 fall in line from a talent perspective? Blitz, while having some talented 04s are weighted heavily on the 03 side from what I hear. Don’t know about WSA. Norman is another crazy one that is heavily weighted with 03s on their 04 team but their 05 team (which appears to be good) how is it weighted?

Another huge question is how do the 05s that are 04s integrate with the true 04s who have been playing 11 v 11 longer and are now the larger kids. These 05s may have been able to succeed based upon relative age effect but now will have to be more reliable on skill. How do those kids accept or adapt into different roles now that they are not the older kids? How does the lack of continuity hurt them? I’ve always heard its important to keep the core together but this new age grouping will mostly destroy that core for most teams.

Norman's 05 have a 9 04s 6 05s split. Norman true age 04s will be better than this years 04s. The 05s group this year beats them by 2-3 goals. But time will tell with who plays up and who stay with their true age team.

ENERGYFC04 wrote:Absolutely great topic but I think from a scientific standpoint is lacking by using the rankings.   What this age group and any age group looks like going forward is a complete unknown.  Having a true 04 daughter this next year is tough because everything is projected based upon who, how many and what position players are returning.  I know I have given it tons of thought and the only thing I truly know is I don’t know anything.  

I’ll use the OFC analogy for example since you discuss it . . . .
 

ENERGY, I assume your anecdotes about specific teams are for 04 GIRLS.  Is that correct?  I'm going to post something over on the 04 Girls board so that this type of discussion can happen there (although I'm not willing to do the calculations for them!!).

Your points are all well-taken, though, for girls or boys.  And that's why I made a point of stressing that my ranking numbers make big assumptions about distribution of birthdays, distribution of talent on a team, and clubs' ability/willingness to combine multiple 04 teams vs. 04s with 05s.

To summarize, my model works well for a club that has just one 04 team and one 05 team, each of which have their birthdays and talent spread evenly throughout the year.

I know that very few clubs fit that profile perfectly, but I still think my rankings give a very general sense of how the pecking order might shake out.  So these are really just a base for more specific analysis/discussion.  Those with anecdotal information about individual teams can make those adjustments to develop their own projections.

sooner5 wrote:Norman's 05 have a 9 04s 6 05s split. Norman true age 04s will be better than this years 04s. The 05s group this year  beats them by 2-3 goals. But time will tell with who plays up and who stay with their true age team.

sooner5, are you referring to Boys or Girls?  Didn't know if you were responding to my initial post or ENERGY's comments about Norman 04 Girls. Thanks.

Populista:

I warned you I don't know anything lol. Yes I should have looked deeper than the simple menu to the right where the title was 04 pure age. I didn't realize boys discussion was on here lol. But yes, I like the analytical analysis and I meant to reference that its still a hit and miss prospect depending on all the various players.

On another note I would love to see the same analysis on the 04 girls!

sooner5 wrote:Norman's 05 have a 9 04s 6 05s split. Norman true age 04s will be better than this years 04s. The 05s group this year  beats them by 2-3 goals. But time will tell with who plays up and who stay with their true age team.

Out of the true 05s, how many of the 6 will play up?

I don't know a darn thing about norman or what clubs are doing but my prediction is from 2002 down there will be very little "playing up". It creates a firestorm of coaches recruiting against each other interclub and all it takes is one of those teams getting bashed in by an age pure team that is bigger faster et al to say no more.

Again, my speculation but for all the larger clubs it seems a nightmare to have kids playing up et al. Smaller clubs have in the past had kids play up and will continue that trend.

Agree completely.  I think "playing up" will be a very small factor for 04 team formation next year.

I am hearing very little discussion around our club of any 04s "playing up".  Unless a whole bunch of kids do it together, it doesn't really accomplish team continuity.  Some of those kids are not really talented or developed enough to play up; and the few that are worry about "losing a year" of youth soccer in the process.

Populista:

I agree. It doesn't make sense IMO 02 down. The part I'm most interested in seeing is how the August - October birthdays do on the 03 level. There are kids who have been able to rely on athleticism and size who will now most likely not have those "strengths" as they are playing with kids that are older than them for the first time. An 03 that is a forward on an 04 team may be a mid or defender on a pure 03 team. Its a lot of unknowns IMO.

The other attribute I'm interested in is the 04s - (Jan through March) who have typically been among the smaller and have to use their mind and skills - who now are among the larger and faster kids in combination with those skills.

Don't see much boys talk on this board. Assume you were talking girls.

sooner5 -

Are you talking Girls or Boys?

Pure age is going to make this Spring season pretty much worthless!!!

Gatorade95 wrote:Pure age is going to make this Spring season pretty much worthless!!!

Isn't Texas moving to true age in the spring for this very reason?