END OF YEAR PROJECTIONS OPL

I'll give my end of year projections based upon current records and remaining schedule.

I believe the top 5 teams are guaranteed 6 wins in league because of Arsenal, Blitz Navy and Clinton. The unknowns heading into the second half of the season is wind, cold, weather, injuries, illnesses, 10 year old girl syndrome and travel. These unknowns are major and could throw these predictions under the bus. Another unknown is if there starts to be some player movement. If you take their records right now and go game by game this is what I believe the end of OPL will look like.

1. Kitterman - 11 - 0 - 3 (tie versus Winters and win v. Winters. win to Blitz, 2 wins v. SLSC and tie versus OFC) total of 34 points.
2. Blitz - 9-4-1 (loss with winters, win at OFC, win with SLSC, loss at Kitterman) total 28 pts loss by goal differential.
3. SLSC - 9-5-0 (Win Winters, loss with Blitz, 2 loss to kitterman, and loss to OFC) total of 27 points
4. Winters - 8-4-2 (Loss to SLSC, Kitterman 1 tie and one loss, tie to OFC, win v blitz) total 26 pts win by goal differential if that is the tie breaker.
5. OFC - 8-4-2 (win to SLSC, Loss to Kitterman, loss to blitz and tie with winters) total of 26 points


Most likely 2 - 5 is completely interchangeable. 1 unexpected win or tie and it changes things dramatically. Plus I've seen windy and cold games cause a lot of draws. Kitterman is obviously in the driver's seat. They run the table it throws things off. I figure they will have an off day or two though. Blitz I think is primed for a run but I feel I stretched with their record based upon their past history. Surprisingly, SLSC has set themselves up by wins versus blitz and OFC. All they need is one win in 5 games and they finish with a 9-5-0 mark. If they manage a tie on top of the win they pass Blitz into the number 2 spot I think odds are they will manage a tie but I just can't put them in 2nd at this point. OFC is a big unknown. My gut tells me they should be second or third at least but they are on a big losing streak right now. What is their confidence and have teams figured out there style of play? Winters has thus far had the most kind schedule in terms of opponents and not having to travel to westside of the state. All they have to do is get 1 win and they are a solid 2 or 3. Winters is probably undervalued and Blitz overvalued. That said you gotta start somewhere.

Doing this on gut I would say Winters manages 2 more wins, SLSC and OFC are in a tie for 3rd and unfortunately blitz early season losses are too much to overcome even though they may be second best team in state.

State Cup is up for grabs. The eastside teams have far more 11 v 11 experience so it will be interesting how much the curve has lessened by spring. Also, in spring and especially state cup benches and playing time becomes shorter which I think lessens the curve with Kitterman even further.

1. Kittermen 11-1-2 (tie Winters, loss Blitz) 35 points
2. Blitz 10-3-1 (I think they win out outside of a random tie) 31 points
3. SLSC 9-3-2 (loss Kitterman - twice, tie Blitz,OFC) 29 points
4. Winters 8-3-3 (loss Blitz, SLSC, Kitterman - ties OFC, Kittermen) 27 points
5. OFC 7-4-3 (loss Kitterman, Blitz - tie SLSC, Winters) 24 points

I think that math works on this but I rushed it. My only "prediction" is that Winters comes back to the pack a little more than they seperate themselves with Kittermen and Blitz. But at the end of the day...just a guess.

If this determines seeding.....definitely want to stay away from that 4/5 matchup if at all possible.

1.kittermen
2. Slsc
3. Blitz
4. Ofc
5. Winters

1. Kitterman
2,3,4 Blitz,Winters, OFC ( toss up and who's to say one of these may pass kitterman)
5. Arsenal
6. Blitz navy
7. Clinton
8. The Cuddly Teddy Bears
9. Fruity Pebbles
10. South Lakes

FUBAR wrote:1. Kitterman
2,3,4 Blitz,Winters, OFC ( toss up and who's to say one of these may pass kitterman)
5. Arsenal
6. Blitz navy
7. Clinton
8. The Cuddly Teddy Bears
9.  Fruity Pebbles
10.  South Lakes

Wow. Someone doesn't care for Southlakes. That's just funny

04eastside wrote:

FUBAR wrote:1. Kitterman
2,3,4 Blitz,Winters, OFC ( toss up and who's to say one of these may pass kitterman)
5. Arsenal
6. Blitz navy
7. Clinton
8. The Cuddly Teddy Bears
9.  Fruity Pebbles
10.  South Lakes

Wow.   Someone doesn't care for Southlakes.   That's just funny

Looks like the top 3 after this weekend still appears to be Kitterman, Blitz, Cosmos. In my mind next weekend is make or break for winters and OFC. If they go winless they are in trouble. If Cosmos beat either team they are in good shape. A win and draw puts them in great position for 2nd. OFC BLitz is biggest game. Blitz cannot afford another loss if they want second. OFC is desperate for a win.

Mid season awards:

Most improved - Arsenal
Most Suprising - Cosmos
They Are What We Thought they Were - Kitterman
Buy Now (stock going up) - blitz
Sale Now - Winters. Easy part of Schedule is over
What Were You Thinking - Clinton
Who Are You - OFC

fanaticdad03 wrote:Looks like the top 3 after this weekend still appears to be Kitterman, Blitz, Cosmos.  In my mind next weekend is make or break for winters and OFC. If they go winless they are in trouble.  If Cosmos beat either team they are in good shape.  A win and draw puts them in great position for 2nd.  OFC BLitz is biggest game.   Blitz cannot afford another loss if they want second.   OFC is desperate for a win.  

Agree!

fanaticdad03 wrote:Mid season awards:  

Most improved - Arsenal
Most Suprising - Cosmos
They Are What We Thought they Were - Kitterman
Buy Now (stock going up) - blitz
Sale Now - Winters. Easy part of Schedule is over
What Were You Thinking - Clinton
Who Are You - OFC

Agree!

fanaticdad03 wrote:Mid season awards:  

Most improved - Arsenal
Most Suprising - Cosmos
They Are What We Thought they Were - Kitterman
Buy Now (stock going up) - blitz
Sale Now - Winters. Easy part of Schedule is over
What Were You Thinking - Clinton
Who Are You - OFC

Not only agree, but the best post of the night!

So my rankings (no big gap between any top 5 team especially with some teams lack of 11 v 11 experience):

1. Kitterman
2. Blitz
3. Cosmos
4. OFC
5. Winters
6. Norman
7. Arsenal
8. Amos
9. OFC White
10. NEOFC

fanaticdad03 wrote:So my rankings (no big gap between any top 5 team especially with some teams lack of 11 v 11 experience):

1.   Kitterman
2.   Blitz
3.   Cosmos
4.   OFC
5.   Winters
6.   Norman
7.   Arsenal
8.   Amos
9.  OFC White
10.   NEOFC

Curious as to how many come up to gold next year. Any thoughts?

Following the 2014-2015 season strict promotion relegation will be followed:
o U11-U16 teams will be limited to 8 team brackets
o U17-U19 teams will be limited to 6 team brackets
2. Promotion and relegation will be as follows:
o The teams below the 7th team in the Gold division will be relegated to the Silver division.
o The top team from the Silver Division will be promoted into the 8th spot in the Gold division.
o The teams below the 6th team in the Silver division will be relegated to the OCL.
o The top two teams in OCL will be promoted into the Silver division of OPL. If league is Regional (U11-U12) it will be promotion from East/West.

From http://www.oksoccer.com/UserFiles/file/Policies/Competitive/OPL-OCL%20Policies%20and%20Procedures%209%202014%20final%20draft%20(2).pdf

However my guess is that Kitterman applies to go up, which would leave the top two teams from OPL 2 (8v8 gold) to move up (guess Amos & Norman or NEOFC), while Clinton moves down.

Looks like Amos will have first shot and I predict Norman then NEOFC with the next two slots. I don't know if its wise for Kitterman to petition to play up. Seems the competition is good in this age bracket especially once Clinton and possibly the other Blitz team is out. Kitterman has been playing nothing but 11 v 11 since U10. Not sure on Winters or Blitz but I know that is not the case for other teams in the state. The 03 Amos group blew everyone out. It doesn't appear Kitterman is doing the same.

fanaticdad03 wrote:Looks like Amos will have first shot and I predict Norman then NEOFC with the next two slots.    I don't know if its wise for Kitterman to petition to play up.  Seems the competition is good in this age bracket especially once Clinton and possibly the other Blitz team is out.   Kitterman has been playing nothing but 11 v 11 since U10.  Not sure on Winters or Blitz but I know that is not the case for other teams in the state.   The 03 Amos group blew everyone out. It doesn't appear Kitterman is doing the same.  

Agree. Why would Kitterman play up? If they were totally dominating I totally see the purpose. If they start blowing teams out and breeze through state cup, would make sense. However, as of now, neither is the case. Are they a really good team? Yes. Would they be a really good team in Gold OPL, a year up?

Pure speculation on my part that Kitterman moves up. I'm expecting most d1 champions to challenge up a year.

Lol.. Short post, but said a lot. Expecting Kitterman to win state and play up. Well, like I said before, Kitterman is the team, until someone beats them. Ties are good for motivation and chatter, but it's still not a win.

OSA is making it hard to play up. this from their website for 2015 - 2016 season:

In the 2015-2016 a team may request to play up an age group with the following restrictions.
o Team that is requesting to play up must pay a $500 fee for a challenge game with the last team in the Gold Division. Challenging team will be required to travel to play game at home club of team being challenged.
o You may only play up in the OPL Gold Division
o If more than one team desires to participate in an older age group they must play each other, the winner of this match can challenge the last team in the Gold Division.
o U11 teams cannot play up unless 51% of their team is U12 age. 51% is based on roster size of 18. (over 9 players must be U12 players)
o No teams in OCL can play up in a different age group without 51% of their team being in the “true” age group based on a maximum roster size.

In reality I think the top 5 04 teams can handle 5-8 of the 03s. Just not a deep age group IMO

fanaticdad03 wrote:OSA is making it hard to play up. this from their website for 2015 - 2016 season:

In the 2015-2016 a team may request to play up an age group with the following restrictions.
o Team that is requesting to play up must pay a $500 fee for a challenge game with the last team in the Gold Division. Challenging team will be required to travel to play game at home club of team being challenged.
o You may only play up in the OPL Gold Division
o If more than one team desires to participate in an older age group they must play each other, the winner of this match can challenge the last team in the Gold Division.
o U11 teams cannot play up unless 51% of their team is U12 age. 51% is based on roster size of 18. (over 9 players must be U12 players)
o No teams in OCL can play up in a different age group without 51% of their team being in the “true” age group based on a maximum roster size.

In reality I think the top 5 04 teams can handle 5-8 of the 03s.  Just not a deep age group IMO

Yes...OSA definitely not making it easy. As for the depth of 04's, I would note that Kitterman has beaten top Blitz 03 team and the top NEOFC team. I think there were some others, too. Amos and OFC are another matter, altogether, although a fairly respectable showing against the OFC 03's. But still losses. The rest of the 03 group would have trouble beating Kitterman, and I probably Blitz and likely OFC, IMO. I would suspect that Kitterman would try to play up, if allowed, just to better themselves. No offense meant, and not speaking toward future development of these teams, but little is gained and much possibly lost (a team generally plays down to the level of its competition, slowly degrading their skills) by playing Blitz Navy 04, Clinton, and even Arsenal (although I predict they will continue to get much better over time).
None of this likely matters, as OSA probably will block. Stupid, but the reality of the situation.

fanaticdad03 wrote:Looks like Amos will have first shot and I predict Norman then NEOFC with the next two slots.    I don't know if its wise for Kitterman to petition to play up.  Seems the competition is good in this age bracket especially once Clinton and possibly the other Blitz team is out.   Kitterman has been playing nothing but 11 v 11 since U10.  Not sure on Winters or Blitz but I know that is not the case for other teams in the state.   The 03 Amos group blew everyone out. It doesn't appear Kitterman is doing the same.  

I agree 100%

I think OSA will allow. That $500/ challenge game is going to be a cash cow for them. Just wonder if they will only charge winner of the play-up bracket the $, or will all challengers have to pay some $, then the winner pay the $500.

bird04 wrote:

fanaticdad03 wrote:OSA is making it hard to play up. this from their website for 2015 - 2016 season:

In the 2015-2016 a team may request to play up an age group with the following restrictions.
o Team that is requesting to play up must pay a $500 fee for a challenge game with the last team in the Gold Division. Challenging team will be required to travel to play game at home club of team being challenged.
o You may only play up in the OPL Gold Division
o If more than one team desires to participate in an older age group they must play each other, the winner of this match can challenge the last team in the Gold Division.
o U11 teams cannot play up unless 51% of their team is U12 age. 51% is based on roster size of 18. (over 9 players must be U12 players)
o No teams in OCL can play up in a different age group without 51% of their team being in the “true” age group based on a maximum roster size.

In reality I think the top 5 04 teams can handle 5-8 of the 03s.  Just not a deep age group IMO

Yes...OSA definitely not making it easy. As for the depth of 04's, I would note that  Kitterman has beaten top Blitz 03 team and the top NEOFC team. I think there were some others, too. Amos and OFC are another matter, altogether, although a fairly respectable showing against the OFC 03's. But still losses. The rest of the 03 group would have trouble beating Kitterman, and I probably Blitz and likely OFC, IMO. I would suspect that Kitterman would try to play up, if allowed, just to better themselves. No offense meant, and not speaking toward future development of these teams, but little is gained and much possibly lost (a team generally plays down to the level of its competition, slowly degrading their skills) by playing Blitz Navy 04, Clinton, and even Arsenal (although I predict they will continue to get much better over time).
None of this likely matters, as OSA probably will block. Stupid, but the reality of the situation.

Again, if Kitterman breezes through state cup and is crowned champion, totally makes sense play up.

However, if they don't win it will be a marketing play. If the top 04 teams can compete with 5-8 of the 03s that leaves approximately 4 good teams. You'll have at least 4 good teams in the 04 age group. So the argument you're moving up to play to better your girls with better competition isn't valid, imho.

1 goal victories over the top 04's doesn't mean a team is dominant, it means there really good. I'll give you that.

Some would say playing up for better competition. Some would say you would play up because the competition is getting better and catching you in the 04 group. Much easier to say your the dominant 04 team, hiding out playing 03's. Than staying in the 04's, where the competition is coming.

Again, none of this matters IF Kitterman dominates in state cup. Otherwise, let's just call it what it would be. It will allow Kittermans team to CLAIM something that may not be true.

04eastside wrote:

bird04 wrote:

fanaticdad03 wrote:OSA is making it hard to play up. this from their website for 2015 - 2016 season:

In the 2015-2016 a team may request to play up an age group with the following restrictions.
o Team that is requesting to play up must pay a $500 fee for a challenge game with the last team in the Gold Division. Challenging team will be required to travel to play game at home club of team being challenged.
o You may only play up in the OPL Gold Division
o If more than one team desires to participate in an older age group they must play each other, the winner of this match can challenge the last team in the Gold Division.
o U11 teams cannot play up unless 51% of their team is U12 age. 51% is based on roster size of 18. (over 9 players must be U12 players)
o No teams in OCL can play up in a different age group without 51% of their team being in the “true” age group based on a maximum roster size.

In reality I think the top 5 04 teams can handle 5-8 of the 03s.  Just not a deep age group IMO

Yes...OSA definitely not making it easy. As for the depth of 04's, I would note that  Kitterman has beaten top Blitz 03 team and the top NEOFC team. I think there were some others, too. Amos and OFC are another matter, altogether, although a fairly respectable showing against the OFC 03's. But still losses. The rest of the 03 group would have trouble beating Kitterman, and I probably Blitz and likely OFC, IMO. I would suspect that Kitterman would try to play up, if allowed, just to better themselves. No offense meant, and not speaking toward future development of these teams, but little is gained and much possibly lost (a team generally plays down to the level of its competition, slowly degrading their skills) by playing Blitz Navy 04, Clinton, and even Arsenal (although I predict they will continue to get much better over time).
None of this likely matters, as OSA probably will block. Stupid, but the reality of the situation.

Again,  if Kitterman breezes through state cup and is crowned champion, totally makes sense  play up.

However,  if they don't win it will be a marketing play.   If the top 04 teams can compete with 5-8 of the 03s that leaves approximately 4 good teams.  You'll have at least 4 good teams in the 04 age group.  So the argument you're moving up to play to better your girls with better competition isn't valid,  imho.

1 goal victories over the top 04's doesn't mean a team is dominant,  it means there really good.   I'll give you that.

Some would say playing up for better competition.   Some would say you would play up because the competition is getting better and catching you in the 04 group.   Much easier to say your the dominant 04 team, hiding out playing 03's.  Than staying in the 04's, where the competition is coming.

Again,  none of this matters IF Kitterman dominates in state cup.  Otherwise,  let's just call it what it would be.  It will allow Kittermans team to CLAIM something that may not be true.  

No one can predict how a particular game will go....look at kitterman vs SLSC this last weekend.... One breakaway and it's a tie after the ball was on SLSC's side for the vast majority of the game... Again, 10 and 11 year old girls! So winning state cup not a good measure. The regular season would be a better gauge.... So, if kitterman goes through regular season with all wins and a few ties, then, yes, time to move up to better competition. If not, then no harm to the team's abilities by staying in 04's....

And as for marketing ploy talk, hopefully our team's record and development will suffice! I would think that most parents would want their girl playing with the best girls possible to facilitate their development. That SHOULD entice people over, but you never know!

I have not heard anything about movement towards TSC, but there is a rumor about movement towards Blitz. Anyone else hear anything?